A Research conducted by the Political Science Department of University of Ghana, Legon has revealed that 50.2 percent voters are likely to vote for NPP MPs, 41.3 percent are also likely to vote for NDC MPs while 2.8% would vote for one third party or another.
According to a Faculty Member and a Researcher at the Department, Mr Kaakyire Frempong, a little more than half (51%) are most likely to be
retained by the respective incumbent party, 35% are up for grabs and could go either way and the 13% are most likely to change parties.
Below are some questions and results
How would you rate the performance of your MP?
• Of the 11,949 respondents, a cumulative 60.2% positively rated
their MPs (Excellent-14.9%, Very Good-21.0% & Good-24.3%), 29.7%
rated them negatively (Bad-20.6% & 9.1% – Very Bad). A significant
10.2% indicated they had no basis for judgement.
Will your MP’s performance affect your vote in the 2020 election?
• Respondents were equally divided on whether or not the
performance of their MPs would affect their vote in the 2020
elections. While 46.2% were insistent that it would affect their
vote, 44.2% were emphatic that it would not, while nearly 10%
(9.2%) were undecided on the matter.
• 62.4% of the respondents indicated that the incumbent MPs were
NPP and the other 37.6% were NDC. This tallies with the fact that
of the 100 seats surveyed, 63 are held by the NPP and the other 37
by NDC. (See Table 25)
Do you think the incumbent MP/party candidate of the incumbent
MP lose?
• A little over half of the respondents (52.6%) felt the incumbent
party (either the incumbent MP or the party’s candidate) would
retained the respective seats. At the same time a significant 47.6%
felt the incumbent party would lose the seat. This is not surprising
given that several of the seats are historically swing seats while
others have incumbent party protesters contesting as
independents.
• Which party’s parliamentary candidate would you vote for if the
election were held today?
• Like in 2016, third parties and independents have very little or no
chance of winning any of the 100 seats surveyed. More than 9 out
of every 10 respondents would vote for either NPP (50.2%) or NDC
(41.3%). While a cumulative 2.8% would vote for one third party or
another, 1.6% were rooting for independents. A higher 3.6% were
still undecided while less than 1% (0.9%) were emphatic that they
would not vote.
“Further analysis of the data reveals that a little more than half (51%) are most likely to be retained by the respective incumbent party, 35 (35%) are up for grabs and could go either way and the 13% are most likely to change parties,” he said.
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